Market trends in the United States are showing a notable shift towards value in consumer produce purchasing habits, according to a recent analysis by market research company Circana.

While produce sales continue to post dollar growth, recent volume trends suggest that consumers have become more selective about what they put in their baskets.

During the “New Pathways to Growth in Produce & Floral” webinar hosted by the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA), Circana revealed that the data covering the 52 weeks ending May 17 showed balanced growth across fresh fruits and vegetables, with gains in both dollars and volume.

However, a closer look at the most recent four-week period revealed declining fruit volumes and slowing overall produce purchases, even as dollar sales continued to rise.

Bailey Furtado, a senior fresh foods industry analyst at Circana, indicated that this shift stems more from changing shopper behavior than from inflation alone.

“This suggests that consumers are still buying produce, but they are buying less per trip,” she said.

In the latest four-week data, tomatoes, salad kits, and lettuce led vegetable sales by dollar value, while growth rates favored staple cooking ingredients such as tomatoes, lettuce, peppers, and cucumbers.

In terms of volume, onions, tomatoes, cucumbers, and potatoes posted the strongest gains, pointing to shoppers focusing on affordable ingredients that support home meal preparation.

On the fruitier side, berries, grapes, and apples remained the largest categories by dollar sales, with cherries, grapes, and apples driving the strongest growth, supported by seasonal demand.

However, berry volumes declined, while cherries, grapes, apples, and avocados gained volume share.

Furtado noted that beyond the meal-prep craze, consumers appear to be favoring products that offer greater versatility, longer shelf life, or seasonal appeal.

The analysis showed that fresh fruit and vegetable categories lost some dollar sales because shoppers who purchased produce during the same period last year did not return this year.

Jonna Parker, team lead at Circana’s Fresh Foods Group, emphasized that the industry should focus on attracting and retaining shoppers rather than relying solely on favorable supply conditions.

She warned that “this intentional shrinking of trips and baskets is going to continue to affect us in this era of affordability.” Furthermore, Parker expressed concern about slowing purchase frequency in some categories and cautioned against relying too heavily on deep discounts to drive demand.

Instead, produce suppliers and retailers should focus on shopper acquisition, purchase frequency, and basket size rather than evaluating performance solely by sales dollars.

Circana also identified younger consumers, Hispanic households, and digital commerce as key growth opportunities for the produce industry.

Parker highlighted that social media is creating opportunities for specialty produce items that traditionally received limited shelf space.

She noted the growing consumer interest in purple produce, including purple potatoes, cauliflower, and asparagus, driven by broader food and beverage trends.

Despite rising consumer awareness, Parker observed that fewer than 20 percent of produce distribution points currently feature these items.

Looking ahead to the summer season, Furtado said the produce industry cannot assume consumers will automatically prioritize fresh items in a budget-conscious environment.

“Produce is a staple, especially with all the holidays coming up, but consumers are watching their baskets and their wallets a lot more closely,” she said.

“Promotions, items, relevancy, all of that is of great importance this summer.”