The landscape of the US produce industry is undergoing a significant transformation as import volumes continue to rise, reshaping the domestic market.

According to a recent analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the volume of fresh fruit imports to the United States has increased by 69 percent compared to a 2010 baseline, while domestic fruit production has seen a decline of 32 percent.

The crossing of these two curves in 2013 marked a pivotal shift, and they have yet to converge since then.

This trend is not driven by increased consumer demand, as the US population only grew by 10 percent during the same period, indicating other underlying factors at play.

The rising costs of domestic fruit production are a significant factor contributing to this shift.

Between 2020 and 2025, the costs of pesticides, fuel, and fertilizers have risen by 25 percent, 31 percent, and 37 percent, respectively, while labor costs have surged by nearly 50 percent.

These escalating expenses have pushed the average cash expenses on specialty crop farms to over $466,000 in 2023, marking a 47 percent increase from 2021.

As a result, domestic production has contracted, creating a void that imports have readily filled.

Figures from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reveal that imports accounted for 59 percent of US fresh fruit availability in 2023, compared to 50 percent in 2007.

While much of this growth addresses genuine seasonal gaps, the phenomenon known as “market window creep” is becoming increasingly prevalent.

This pattern involves imports arriving earlier and staying later, intensifying competition during the early and late weeks when domestic growers have traditionally secured higher prices.

The AFBF warns that while trade remains necessary, the shrinking domestic base exposes the US fruit supply to greater risks from weather, political instability, and food safety events abroad.